STANDAR HUJAN EKSTRIM DI RIAU MENGGUNAKAN METODE REGRESI KUANTIL

Aristya Ardhitama, Yessy Christy Ulina

Abstract


Intisari

Salah satu akibat dari adanya fenomena penamasan global dan perubahan iklim adalah meningkatnya kasus kejadian cuaca ekstrim dan iklim ekstrim yang terjadi di hampir sebagian besar wilayah Indonesia khususnya di wilayah Riau. Hingga kini belum ada batasan yang jelas atau standar tentang suatu kondisi cuaca dan iklim yang dapat dikategorikan ekstrim. Dari hasil perhitungan curah hujan ekstrim di Riau dengan 2 daerah sampel pos hujan yaitu data Stamet Pekanbaru dan Stamet Japura Rengat, menggunakan metode regresi kuantil, untuk Kota Pekanbaru nilai ekstrim tertinggi pada bulan November 518 mm dan nilai ekstrim terendah 28 mm pada bulan Juli. Sedangkan untuk di daerah Rengat nilai batas atas untuk curah hujannya pada bulan Desember 431.4 mm dan untuk batas bawah 14.3 mm. Nilai ekstrim untuk curah hujan bermanfaat untuk peringatan dini banjir dan kekeringan.

Abstract

One of the global warming and climate change effects is increased number of extreme weather events and extreme climate events that occurred in most of Indonesia region, Riau in particular. Yet, there are no distinct border or any standard definition for those events to be categorized as extreme events. Extreme rainfall events have been calculated using 2 weather station data as sample in this paper, those are Pekanbaru and Japura Rengat station, with quantile regression method. For Pekanbaru station, the highest rainfall event is in November with 518 mm monthly rainfall, and the lowest rainfall event is in July with 28 mm monthly rainfall. For Japura Rengat station the highest rainfall event is in December with 431.4 mm monthly rainfall, and the lowest rainfall event is 14.3 mm monthly rainfall. Extreme rainfall can be used for flood and drought early warning.


Keywords


Perubahan Iklim, Iklim Ekstrim, Hujan Ekstrim.

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.29122/jstmc.v15i1.2653

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