Main Article Content

Luthfi Yufajjiru


The WHO have been setting Covid-19 as pandemic since it spread over the world including Indonesia. Modeling is needed to see the possibility of this case for raising awareness. This research had been conducted to build a model using the Gaussian equation for modeling the Covid-19 case in Indonesia to fulfill the model gap in previous research. The data acquisition is scraping from Line Siaga official account in Line chatting platform based on KEMENKES RI publication. This Modeling is yielding several models and RMS Error: a daily positive case, a daily recovery, a daily death, the cumulative positive case, the cumulative recovery, the cumulative death, a daily active case, and the cumulative active case. Modeling was started on 2 April 2020 and set parameters that want to be evaluated on 12 April 2020, and evaluating the model on 21 April 2020. The result shows that the infection could exceed 33275 cases and 4342 death. The RMS Error is increasing, the cumulative model generally < 56% to <115%, < 35% to <52% for daily cases, and < 5% to 15% for death and recovery rate. From the RMS Error shows that the equation has not a good precission which affected by the community behaviour and also the goverment policy that could reshaping the curve quite significant. The other possible factor is the reliability of the data, there is dependency between positive case and amount of testing which leads to represents the cummulative positive case to not exactly the same in reality.

Article Details



Du Z, X. Xu, Y. Wu, L. Wang, B.J.Cowling and M.L.Ancel. 2020. Serial interval of COVID-19 among publicly reported confirmed cases. Emerg Infect Dis.

Hajian, Alireza, Styles and Peter. 2019. Application Of Soft Computing And Intelligent Methods In Geophysics. Springer.

Ikatan Alumni Matematika Universitas Indonesia. 2020. Akan Sampai Kapan Perjuangan Kita Melawan Pandemi Covid-19? Beberapa Alumnus Departemen Matematika Universitas Indonesia Mencoba Menjawab Pertanyaan Ini Menggunakan Model Sederhana yang Dikembangkan dengan Model SIRU*. [30 Maret 2020].

Liu, Z., P.Magal, O. Seydi and G. Webb. 2020. Predicting the Cumulative Number of Cases for the COVID-19 Epidemic in China From Early Data. 10.20944/preprints202002.0365.v1.

Redaksi WE Online. 2020. Ini Kronologi Lengkap Kasus 19 Orang Positif Corona di Indonesia. Warta Ekonomi. 10 Maret 2020.

Riyanti, D., J. Lassa, D. Setiamarga, A. Sudjatma, M. Indrawan, B. Haryanto, C. Mahfud, M. S. Sinapoy, S. Djalante, I. Rafliana, L. A. Gunawan, G. A. K. Surtiari dan H. Warsilah. 2020. Review and analysis of current responses to COVID-19 in Indonesia: Period of January to March 2020, Progress in Disaster Science. Vol. 6.

Lauer, S.A., K. H. Grantz, Q. Bi, F. K. Jones, Q. Zheng, H. R. Meredith, A. S. Azman, N. G. Reich dan J. Lessler. 2020. The Incubation Periodof Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Conï¬rmed Cases: Estimation and Application, Annals of Internal Medicine. Vol. 172 No. 9.

Taylor, J. R. 1997. An introduction to error analysis: The study of uncertainties in physical measurements (2nd ed.). Estados Unidos: University Science Books.

World Health Organization. 2020. WHO Timeline - Covid-19. [30 Maret 2020].