INDEKS LABILITAS UDARA UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI KEJADIAN BADAI GUNTUR PADA PUNCAK MUSIM HUJAN TAHUN 2016
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Abstract
Intisari
Prediksi kejadian badai guntur menjadi perhatian masyarakat luas karena biasanya disertai dengan curah hujan yang tinggi, terutama untuk wilayah rawan banjir seperti provinsi DKI Jakarta. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk analisis potensi hujan disertai badai guntur dengan menggunakan data radiosonde, analisis indeks labilitas berdasarkan parameter yang didapat dari radiometer dan analisis tren indeks labilitas 6 jam sebelum kejadian hujan. Ada beberapa tanggal yang menjadi perhatian yaitu hari dimana kejadian hujan disertai badai guntur tinggi pada tanggal 28-31 Januari 2016 serta tanggal 14 Februari 2016 dan kejadian hujan tanpa badai guntur pada tanggal 3-4 Februari 2016. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa terdapat perbedaan hasil sounding sebelum hujan dan pada saat hujan. Hasil sounding sebelum kejadian hujan memiliki labilitas moderat dan sounding pada saat kejadian hujan/badai guntur memiliki labilitas kuat. Selain itu, data dari radiometer menunjukan perbedaan signifikan antara perubahan tren indeks labilitas pada 6 jam sebelum kejadian hujan yang disertai badai guntur, dan pada kejadian hujan tanpa badai guntur.Â
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Abstract
Predictions of a thunderstorm event become an attention for wide society because it is usually accompanied by heavy rainfall, especially for the flood prone area like the province of Jakarta. The objective of this study is to analyze the potential of rain with thunderstorms using radiosonde data, to analyze the instability indices based on parameters that obtained from Radiometer, and to analyze the trends of instability indices in 6 hours before the storm event. There are a few dates that become attention, the day where rain events with thunderstorms is high which is on January 28th-31st, 2016 and February 14th, 2016, and the rain event without thunderstorm on February 3rd-4th, 2016. The results showed that there are different sounding results before rain event and when it rains. The sounding result before rain event has moderate lability and sounding result when rain event has strong lability. In addition, Â the data from the radiometer showed a significant difference between the predicted 6 hours prior to the event of rain with a thunderstorm and rain without thunderstorm events.
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