PENGARUH MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION TERHADAP DISTRIBUSI TEMPORAL DAN PROPAGASI HUJAN BERDASARKAN PENGAMATAN RADAR CUACA (Studi Kasus : Intensive Observation Period 2016 di Wilayah Jakarta dan Sekitarnya)
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Abstract
Intisari
Distribusi temporal dan propagasi hujan selama Intensive Observation Period 2016 (IOP 2016, 18 Januari – 16 Februari 2016) di wilayah Jakarta dan sekitarnya dianalisis berdasarkan rataan longitudinal dan latitudinal data Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator (CAPPI) radar cuaca, pada periode sebelum, saat dan sesudah fase aktif Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa distribusi temporal hujan berkurang secara signifikan pada periode MJO aktif dan sesudah MJO, terutama pada dini hari. Di sisi lain, intensitas hujan semakin meningkat dengan nilai rata-rata di atas 30 mm/jam pada periode setelah MJO. Pada komponen zonal, arah propagasi hujan umumnya dominan dari barat ke timur pada ketiga periode analisis, sedangkan untuk komponen meridional, terdapat variasi yang cukup signifikan pada periode saat dan setelah MJO aktif . Pergerakan hujan dari selatan ke utara pada kedua periode tersebut menunjukkan pengaruh siklus diurnal yang semakin kuat dibandingkan pengaruh monsun, setelah MJO melintasi wilayah barat Benua Maritim Indonesia.
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Abstract
Temporal distribution and propagation of rainfall during Intensive Observation Period 2016 campaign (IOP 2016, January 18 – February 16, 2016) in Jakarta and surrounding area were investigated based on the longitudinal dan latitudinal averages of Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator (CAPPI) dataset of weather radar, during the active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase, as well as, pre-MJO and post-MJO periods. The results show a significant decrease of rainfall temporal distribution during the active MJO and post-MJO periods, particularly in the early morning, meanwhile, the rainfall intensity shows significant increase, with the averages of more than 30 mm/hr during the post-MJO period. On the zonal component, the rainfall mostly has eastward propagation for all period while having more significant variations on the meridional component during the active and post-MJO periods. Northward rainfall propagation during the active and post-MJO periods indicates the strengthen effect of diurnal cycle over monsoon after the MJO passed by the western part of Indonesian Maritime Continent.
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