KAJIAN PELUANG CURAH HUJAN BULANAN DAN PERKIRAAN HASIL TAMBAHAN AIR SEBAGAI BAHAN PERTIMBANGAN PENENTUAN WAKTU PELAKSANAAN MODIFIKASI CUACA (HUJAN BUATAN) KASUS: DAS RIAM KANAN –KALIMANTAN SELATAN
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Abstract
Kalimantan Selatan pernah digunakan sebagai daerah target pelaksanaan hujan buatan (penyemaian awan) beberapa kali. Di dalam DAS tersebut terdapat satu dam yang berfungsi untuk pembangkit tenaga listrik. Suatu hal yang sering berkaitan dengan
ketersediaan air adalah masalah distribusi hujan. Bila terjadi musim kemarau panjang atau adanya gannguan iklim, maka akan menyebabkan devisit air. Pada saat seperti itu
teknologi hujan buatan dapat diterapkan sebagai salah satu teknologi alternatif untuk
menjaga ketersediaan air.
Untuk menentukan waktu yang tepat bagi pelaksanaan hujan buatan, telah dilakukan
analisis data curah hujan histories. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan analisis peluang
distribusi normal, dapat diperkirakan jumlah curah hujan yang akan dan hasil tmbahan air. Hasil analisis menunjukan bahwa bila pelaksanaan hujan buatan bulan Nopember s.d. April akan meningkatkan tambahan air sebesar 25-50 juta m3 dengan tingkat peluang keberhasilan berkisar 98.7% - 29.8% dan untuk peningkatan sebesar 50-75 juta m3 nilai peluangnya adalah 80.2% - 11.1%
Riam Kanan catchment area of Banjar District South Kalimantan Province was used as the target of cloud seeding activities several times. There are have one dam at down stream area which purposed for hydroelectric power plant. Even though Indonesia known that have enough rainfall but the case it is not evenly distributed. One time it has more than enough rainfall; another is very dry that is not enough to operate the hydroelectric power plant optimally. At this time cloud seeding activity to enhanced rainfall amount is necessary to be implemented.
To determine favorable time to execute cloud seeding activity it is necessary to assess
rainfall pattern by making use of the historical data and analyses them statically. Normal
distribution method was used in this analysis. The result if cloud seeding activity is
implemented in November to April will increase rainfall amount between 25 – 50 million m3 with probability value 98.7 % - 29.8 % and for increase rainfall amount between 50 – 75 million m3 with probability 80.2% – 11.1%.
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