NOTE AND CORRESPONDENCE TANGGAPAN TERHADAP TULISAN REANALISIS KONDISI ATMOSFER UNTUK DEKLARASI FAVOURABLE-DAY
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Abstract
wahana radiosonde dan sinop/satelit yang menyatakan favourable day meskipun wahana cuaca permukaan dan pibal menyatakan unfavourable day. Keputusan ini sesuai dengan desain penelitian. Hasil survey dengan pesawat yang dilengkapi dengan pengukuran LWC menunjukan bahwa kondisi cuaca mendukung terbentuknya awan cumulus kongestus dengan nilai LWC memenuhi kriteria desain penelitian. Dengan dasar ini amplop (untuk randomized seeding) dibuka dan menyatakan “SEED†(dilakukan
penyemaian), maka dilakukan penyebaran bahan semai di dalam awan. Karena prosedur sudah mengikuti desain penelitian, maka data sampel semai pada tanggal 18 Desember 1999 sah dan tidak bisa digugurkan atau dikeluarkan dari set data semai. Reanalisis kondisi cuaca dalam kasus ini tidak dapat dipakai untuk menggugurkan data semai tapi untuk mengevaluasi keakuratan analisis kondisi cuaca sebelumnya.
Decision of “favourable day†on 18 December 1999 was based on the result of data
analyses of radiosonde and synoptic weather/satellite imageries which stated that the
day was favourable to find cumulus congestus development over study area, even data
analyses of surface weather and winds data said unfavourable day. The decision met the criteria of the research design. Morover, survey using aircraft indicated that LWC was
also met the criteria. Based on these assessments, the randomized seeding was carried
out and the envelope said to be seeded, therefore seeding was done. Because
procedures to carry out randomized seeding met the reaserch design, data of randomized seeding on 18 December 1999 was valid and should not be exluded from
data set. In this case, weather condition reanalyses should not be utilized to drop data
but to weigh up the precision of weather condition analysis.
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