HUBUNGAN ANTARA ENSO DENGAN VARIASI CURAH HUJAN DI INDONESIA
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Abstract
wilayah Indonesia dengan menggunakan data rata-rata bulanan SOI dan curah hujan
selama 33 tahun (1961-1993). Berdasarkan rata -rata tiga bulanan diperoleh bahwa bulan September-Oktober -Nopember merupakan periode dimana SOI memiliki hubungan sangat kuat (r > +0.6) dengan curah hujan di hampir seluruh wilayah Indonesia. Daerah tersebut adalah Sumatra Selatan, Bengkulu, Lampung, Jawa, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi Selatan, Sulawesi Tenggara, Sulawesi Utara, Maluku Utara, dan Irian Jaya. Sedangkan curah hujan di Sumatra Barat, Riau, Sumatra Utara dan Aceh tidak terpengaruh oleh perubahan nilai SOI (-0.3 < r < +0.3). Pengaruh El Nino di setiap daerah di Indonesia pada umumnya berlangsung pada masa transisi dari musim kemarau ke musim hujan.
The correlation between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and precipitation over
Indonesia have been analyzed for period 1961-1993. Strong correlation found during
September-October -November season over South Sumatra, Bengkulu, Lampung, Java,
Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, North Sulawesi,
North Maluku, and Irian Jaya. Precipitation over these areas decrease during El Nino
episode. Whereas precipitation over West Sumatra, Riau, North Sumatra and Aceh does
not have good correlation with SOI. El Nino influences the precipitation during the
transition period especially from dry season to rainy season.
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