MEMPRAKIRAKAN KEDATANGAN FENOMENA EL-NINO TAHUN 2002~2003
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Abstract
ekstrim lainnya yaitu kekeringan akibat dari fenomena alam El-Nino. Fenomena El-Nino
terakhir terjadi pada tahun 1997, dimana dengan kekuatan intensitas yang cukup besar
menyebabkan kekeringan di wilayah Indonesia yang cukup parah. Dengan mempelajari
karasteristik dari fenomena tersebut maka tahun 2002 ~ 2003 ini diperkirakan fenomena
El-Nino akan berulang lagi. Analisis time series dari data indikator El-Nino nilai anomali SST wilayah Pasifik Tengah dan Timur, nilai SOI, angin pasat sampai dengan bulan April 2002 terlihat indikasi bahwa fenomena El-Nino kemungkinan akan terjadi pada kuartal terakhir tahun 2002 sampai kuartal pertama tahun 2003. Intensitas fenomena El-Nino ini diperkirakan tidak lebih besar daripada kejadian pada tahun 1997.
In Indonesia area, after flood hazard period would be continued by another extremely
hazard were drought period due to El-Nino phenomena. The last phenomena was
occurred in 1997 which intensity impact of extremely drought over Indonesia area. By the assessment of the charasteristic phenomena was indicated that the El-Nino episode will face out again. Time series analysis for sea surface temperature anomaly of East Pacific and Central Pacific area, Southern Oscillation Index value and Easterly wind up to April 2002 shows that this phenomena was indicated occur in last four month of 2002 until first four month of 2003. The intensity of El-Nino phenomena was smaller than previous occurrance.
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