PARAMETERISASI MODEL CUACA WRF-ARW UNTUK MENDUKUNG KEGIATAN TEKNOLOGI MODIFIKASI CUACA (TMC) DI SUMATERA, SULAWESI, DAN JAWA
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Abstract
Telah dilakukan penelitian prediksi cuaca dengan perangkat lunak model cuaca WRF-
ARW selama kegiatan Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca di Sumatera, Sulawesi, dan Jawa
dalam periode tahun 2010 dan 2011. Data masukan diperoleh dari prediksi global GFS
(Global Forecast System) yang dapat diunduh setiap enam jam pada situs NOAA.
Dengan WPS (WRF Prepossessing System), data global tersebut akan dipersempit
sesuai wilayah yang akan diprediksi. Unsur cuaca yang diprediksi adalah curah hujan
dan arah angin yang diproses sehari sebelumnya. Hasil prediksi diolah secara spasial
dengan program GrADS. Validasi dilakukan dengan mencocokan hasil GrADS dengan
data radar atau data satelit. Selain itu, dilakukan juga parameterisasi untuk memperoleh
hasil prediksi yang lebih akurat dengan mengacu pada metode menggantikan proses
yang terlalu kecil atau kompleks secara fisik yang direpresentasikan dalam model yang
disederhanakan. Diharapkan hasil prediksi cuaca WRF-ARW ini dapat menjadi acuan
untuk menentukan peluang yang paling baik dalam periode harian untuk melakukan
penyemaian awan.
Weather prediction with WRF-ARW has been carried out daily for Weather Modification
Technology activities in Riau and West Sumatra from June 21 – July 21, 2010. The input data obtained from GFS (Global Forecast System), which can be downloaded every six hours from the NOAA website. With WPS (WRF Preprocessing System) global data will be downscaled according to the area that would be predicted. Weather components are predicted rainfall and wind direction is processed the day before. The prediction results are spatially processed with the program Grads. Validation is done by matching the results of Grads and radar data or satellite data. It is expected that the results of WRF-ARW forecast weather can be a reference to determine the best opportunities in conducting cloud seeding.
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