KONDISI CURAH HUJAN DAN CURAH HUJAN EKSTREM SAAT MJO KUAT DAN LEMAH: DISTRIBUSI SPASIAL DAN MUSIMAN DI INDONESIA
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Abstract
Propagasi MJO memicu peningkatan aktifitas konveksi yang menyebabkan kenaikan probabilitas hujan. Intensitas hujan dan frekuensi hujan ekstrem saat MJO pada bulan DJF dan JJA di Indonesia dianalisis. Komposit data curah hujan harian tahun 2008-2018 (CHIRPS) dilakukan berdasar kategori tanggal kejadian MJO (kuat dan lemah) pada tiap fase (3,4,5) menggunakan data indeks Realtime Multivariate MJO. Hujan ekstrem dikategorikan berdasarkan intensitas curah hujan diatas presentil 95%. Hasil menunjukkan MJO kuat Fase 3, 4 dan 5 lebih sering terjadi saat DJF (frekuensi kejadian 50% lebih banyak dibanding saat MJO lemah). Saat JJA, frekuensi kejadian MJO kuat dan lemah tidak berbeda signifikan. Saat DJF, di Indonesia bagian barat terjadi peningkatan intensitas hujan saat MJO kuat Fase 3 dan 4. Di Indonesia bagian timur, peningkatan curah hujan mencapai hampir 100% di beberapa bagian Papua saat MJO kuat Fase 5 DJF. Di sebagian besar Sulawesi saat MJO kuat Fase 4 bulan JJA peningkatan curah hujan mencapai dua kali lipat. Wilayah dengan curah hujan lebih tinggi saat MJO lemah, diantaranya kawasan barat Indonesia (Sumatera dan Jawa) saat MJO Fase 3 di bulan JJA. Hujan ekstrem terjadi baik saat MJO kuat maupun MJO lemah. Frekuensi kejadian hujan ekstrem lebih tinggi saat MJO kuat di Sumatera bagian utara, Jawa bagian timur, Kalimantan bagian selatan, dan beberapa bagian di Pulau Papua saat Fase 3 di bulan DJF, dan pada wilayah Sulawesi dan Maluku saat Fase 4 di bulan JJA. Frekuensi curah hujan ekstrem lebih tinggi saat MJO lemah seperti pada wilayah Papua pada Fase 3 dan 4 bulan JJA.
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