PENGARUH PROPAGASI MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) DI BENUA MARITIM INDONESIA (BMI) TERHADAP SIKLUS DIURNAL DINAMIKA ATMOSFER DAN CURAH HUJAN DI PROVINSI LAMPUNG TAHUN 2018

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Sindy Maharani
Hasti Amrih Rejeki

Abstract

Intisari


Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) merupakan osilasi gelombang submusiman di wilayah tropis yang berpropagasi ke arah timur dari Samudera Hindia melewati Benua Maritim Indonesia (BMI) hingga Samudera Pasifik. Propagasi MJO dapat meningkatkan konvektivitas dan curah hujan pada wilayah yang dilewatinya. Lampung merupakan salah satu wilayah di BMI bagian barat yang berbatasan dengan Samudera Hindia sebagai tempat awal kemunculan MJO. Posisi Lampung tersebut menyebabkan perbedaan insolasi antara daratan dan lautan secara diurnal sehingga siklus diurnal ikut berperan dalam pembentukan cuaca. Oleh karena itu penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh propagasi MJO dari Fase 3-5 pada tahun 2018 terhadap siklus diurnal dinamika atmosfer dan curah hujan di Lampung. Siklus diurnal dianalisis dengan membagi empat periode waktu yaitu dini hari (00.00-06.00 LT), pagi hari (06.00-12.00 LT), siang hari (12.00-18.00 LT) dan malam hari (18.00-00.00 LT). Berdasarkan rata-rata komposit data Reanalysis ECMWF, GSMaP, dan curah hujan observasi didapatkan bahwa selama penjalarannya MJO menguat ketika Fase 3-4 dan melemah ketika Fase 5. Secara diurnal konvektivitas yang kuat dan curah hujan tinggi terjadi di perairan pada dini hari hingga pagi hari, di daerah pesisir pada siang hari, dan di daratan pada malam hari yang meningkat dari Fase 3-4 dan melemah pada Fase 5. Hujan menjalar dari Lampung bagian barat menuju Lampung bagian tengah dengan jeda waktu selama 2-5 jam ketika Fase 3, 4-7 jam ketika Fase 4, dan 1-2 jam ketika Fase 5. Pada Fase 3-5 hujan terjadi di Lampung bagian timur dengan perbedaan waktu 1-3 jam dari Lampung bagian tengah.


 


Abstract


Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is a sub-seasonal wave oscillation in the tropics that propagates eastward from the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) until the Pacific Ocean. MJO propagation can increase convective and rainfall in the regions it passes. Lampung is one of the regions in the western IMC which near the Indian Ocean for the MJO first appeared. The Lampung position causes different insolation between land and sea diurnally, so the diurnal cycles play an important role in weather formation. Therefore, this study aims to determine the effect of MJO propagation phases 3-5 in 2018 on the diurnal cycle of atmospheric dynamics and rainfall in Lampung. The diurnal cycle was analyzed by dividing four periods of time, in the early morning (00-06 LT), morning (06-12 LT), afternoon (12-18 LT), and night (18-00 LT). Based on the average composite of ECMWF, GSMaP, and precipitation observations data were obtained that propagation MJO strengthens during phase 3-4 and weakens during phase 5. Diurnal strong convective and high rainfall occur in the oceans from early morning to morning, in coastal during the day, and on land at night which increases from phase 3-4 and weakens in phase 5. Rain propagates from western Lampung to central Lampung with a time lag of 2-5 hours during phase 3, 4-7 hours when phases 4, and 1 -2 hours during phase 5. In the 3-5 phase, rain occurs in eastern Lampung with a time difference of 1-3 hours from central Lampung.


 

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